Argentina’s ruthless average points relegation system has accounted for the demise of several heavyweight clubs. But what would it look like in the Premier League?

Pitch invasions are usually a spectacle reserved for promotion parties or championship winning jubilation, but in 2011 as River Plate fans attempted to enter the pitch at the Estadio Monumental, their relegation becoming a reality, the mood was very different. Water cannons were fired sporadically into the stands as both River and opposing players were escorted from the pitch amid an unprecedented police operation that had pre-empted the now seemingly enviable relegation of the record 35 time champions to the Primeria Nacional B, via a playoff.

Chaotic scenes of utter heartbreak and rage ensued, born out of an overwhelming collective frustration. Players, including Erik Lamela – now of Spurs, openly wept while supporters used chairs and advertising hoardings as missiles, expressing their sheer disbelief at the fate that had befallen their beloved club. Fans of Independiente, another of the so called ‘Big Five’, boasting an unsurpassed 7 Copa Libertadores triumphs, were more sombre in the face of their own humiliating demotion. A sentence confirmed with a game to spare at the end of last season. Supporters stood together to solemnly sing their team down to the second tier; an atmosphere resembling that of a funeral – a club plunged into mourning in the wake of their team’s demise.

Relegation for a top club is unthinkable in England.  A culture characterised by owners who control seemingly boundless billions that are often blindly ploughed into their respective teams transfer window after transfer window, making them practically immune to even the threat of relegation. However, the unusual manner by which these gargantuan South American sides were unceremoniously dispensed with would seem equally alien to the average Premier League viewer. The Argentine Primeria Division uses a unique average points relegation system, in which the three clubs with the lowest points per game average over the last three seasons are demoted to the second division.

This convoluted method often means a calculator must be employed to decipher exactly whether any given side is under threat or not. The points totals from the three previous seasons are added together, then this total is divided by the number of matches played over that period by that team. As in England, a 20 team league equates to 38 games a season. (38 x 3 = 114, total points divided by 114) This the spits out the average amount of points accumulated per game in that time period. The teams with the worst three averages are then relegated.

Unsurprisingly, this can lead to some bizarre occurrences. Strangely, River Plate actually finished 6^th overall in the 10/11 season that saw them go down. This being across both the Apertura and Clausura championships – the Argentines split the league in two, crowning a champion after everyone’s played everyone once and doing so again after a second lot of fixtures at the end of the season. It was their consecutive 15^th placed finishes, along with 8^th plus a disastrous 20^th, and bottom, in 08/09 which meant they were unable to accumulate sufficient points over the required period to keep them afloat.

Fellow giant Independiente’s recent relegation can also be put down to the average points system. Their record over their last six mini league campaigns reads 12^th, 18^th, 16^th, 8^th, 6^th and an abhorrent last place. A vaguely acceptable record for the most part, but The Red Devils fell afoul of one of the inherent quirks of such a convoluted system. Over the course of those three seasons, the weaker teams below them were slowly siphoned off by relegation, while a small number of promoted sides overachieved in their then limited time in the top flight (only the points from the current run of consecutive top flight seasons count toward a side’s average), Independiente’s own average tally grew weaker and weaker until they were gradually, inescapably dragged down into the abyss.

The reverse situation may appear to be a boon for a newly promoted team; that they may more easily stay up with only their performance from the current campaign affecting their fate. As a result, their wins are a more valuable contribution to their average due to the lower number of games they’ve played. Unfortunately however, this is not the case. In practice the system greatly contributes to the difficultly of maintaining top flight status. As the averaging attributes to the likely points total required, in that stand alone first season back in the big time, to being a few crucial points higher than were they to be playing under the usual European style system. Transversely, a poor run of form can be equally powerful as a positive sequence of results – but with the opposite effect. All this often results in the safety mark being tantalisingly dangled above a newly promoted side’s head, just out of reach. In the 08/09 season San Martin were sent straight back down to the second tier after gathering the generally excepted English survival staple of 40 points, thus equalling a 19^th place ranking in the relegation table. Although this tally saw them finish 16^th overall that season, meaning they would’ve avoided the drop had the league been using a standard method.

Average point relegation was introduced in the wake of San Lorenzo’s demotion at the end of the 80/81 season, supposedly to safeguard those bigger clubs – helping them avoid the exit should they under-perform one year. With the hope that the preceding seasons would’ve been more fruitful, bolstering their average tally. A tactic that would be entirely impossible to implement this side of the Atlantic. Fans and media alike would simply not allow it. The blatant bias towards powerful clubs in Argentina is difficult to comprehend. In 2011, the Argentine FA openly discussed expanding the top flight to 40 teams, encompassing the second division which now included River Plate, surely for no other reason than to keep one of the league’s prized assets afloat.

Besides, the Primera Division has long been substantially more competitive than English football in the Premier League era ever has been. A 1.2 points per game average is seen as the watermark for safety in Argentina, equating to 45.6 points over the course of the year. Which, these days, is a common quotient for English sides threatening mid table– only the top 10 EPL clubs exceeded 46 points in 13/14 – a far cry from the 34 points a Kieran Richardson inspired West Brom survived with in 2005. Perhaps the strangest quirk born out of this device was the dilemma facing Victoria side, Tigre, on the final day of the 11/12 season. Former Villerreal stalwart Rodolfo Arruabarrena’s outfit sat second in the Clausura championship, level on points with Arsenal at the top, the title within their reach with a single game remaining. Meanwhile, incredibly, they simultaneously found themselves hovering precariously just above the relegation zone. A defeat against Independiente on the final day might have seen them drop into the relegation play off spots, whereas a win could’ve handed them the title. Absolutely insane in European terms. In the event, neither happened and a 2-2 draw saw them survive the drop but hand Arsenal the league.

Average Points Pos.	13/14 Pos.	Team	Pts per Game
1	1	Man City	2.219
2	7	Man United	2.123
3	4	Arsenal	1.947
4	3	Chelsea	1.939
5	6	Spurs	1.842
6	2	Liverpool	1.728
7	5	Everton	1.675
8	10	Newcastle	1.360
9	8	Southampton	1.276
10	9	Stoke	1.202
=11	11	Crystal Palace	1.184
=11	12	Swansea	1.184
13	17	West Brom	1.158
14	13	West Ham	1.132
15	19	Fulham	1.114
16	18	Norwich	1.088
17	14	Sunderland	1.070
18	15	Villa	1.026
19	16	Hull	0.974
20	20	Cardiff	0.789

So how would a European league look with average points? These varying circumstances could befall a number of English sides, one way or the other, if the Premier League had used the same system this term, the obvious differences between the two leagues and footballing cultures notwithstanding. This hypothetical end of season table (above) takes the average points per game for each team over the last three seasons, just as the Argentine Primeria Division does. Aston Villa’s plight is stark. Despite eventually avoiding relegation by a relatively comfortable 5 points, which, as tradition now dictates, included a smattering of flirtatious glances over their shoulders at the dreaded Championship trap door, they would instead be the club who fell victim to Sunderland’s inexplicable, hail-mary charge headfirst at the Premier League’s elite, rather than Norwich or Fulham.

Even before Gus Poyet somehow cajoled his team into their superhuman performances in April and May, the average points table would’ve left the Villains desperately needing wins from their last three games to have a chance of staying up, rather than the one or two points that could have easily seen them achieve safety. West Brom, Norwich and particularly Fulham, on the other hand, benefit greatly. The Cottagers’ 52 points accrued the season before last, leaves them lying comfortably clear of any relegation fisticuffs. Meanwhile, Hull suffer from the higher average total needed to survive in their promotion season, much as San Martin did in their first tilt back in the Argentine Premier Division. The Tigers’ 37 points would see them down and, as Villa would be, ruing Sunderland. The Black Cat’s 45 and 39 point hauls in previous years equated to a poor average and, despite their crucial victory over Cardiff, would’ve needed those wins at Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford to survive. The hapless Welshmen however, would’ve been long gone.

Newcastle have recently been roundly abused from all sides, even entering the realms of laughing stock in recent weeks after 7 defeats in their last 8 barely helped drag themselves over the finishing line. A run characterised be woeful defensive work bordering on the unprofessional, and being resoundingly beaten by all comers home and away. Their only recent success relegated Cardiff in a 3-0 win, thus highlighting ever more the Bluebirds’ ineptitude. Despite their undoubtedly horrendous displays in the second half of the year, or PC (post Cabaye), under the Argentinian system they could’ve been truly abysmal for the duration and have avoided relegation thanks to their 5^th place and 65 points in 11/12.

Hypothetically, it’s possible a meagre 12 points would’ve kept Pardew and co in the division – giving them an average of 1.035 points per game, just clear of Villa.  Even more bizarrely, next season, should they have amassed such a small total, they would enter some sort of bizarre Premier League Purgatory, having to replace that excellent display from two years previously to harbour any hope of staying up. This seems somewhat unlikely, bearing in mind their current disarray – meaning relegation would simply be deferred for another 38 games. Whereas, astoundingly, while Newcastle have mentally been on holiday since Christmas, Manchester City could’ve actually been on the beach from August to May, lost every single game and still have comfortably survived with a 1.465 average. That would’ve put them 8^th, for those of you keeping count.

These are obviously extreme, somewhat facetious, hypotheticals of course but the principle is most certainly a valid one, as anyone connected with River Plate will vociferously testify. Finishing 6^th and being relegated in a 20 team competition is surely an unhealthy situation for any club or league. Perhaps, were River to fall, then doing so a season sooner would’ve been beneficial in the long run. They bounced straight back to the top flight and the season spent swimming against the tide amounted to little more than wasted effort and stress, merely delaying their rebuilding process by an arguably crucial 12 months. However, in a traditional three up/three down system River would’ve avoided the drop altogether as they sidestepped finishing in the bottom three at any juncture. Even in the season they actually were demoted, they still managed to finish fourth from bottom in the average points table – hence the playoff. So their fate could be cast as a little harsh. River are a fully fledged giant of the game and a few haphazard campaigns for such a club can be somewhat organic at a certain point in their cycle. Not to mention the fact that they have recovered well, finishing second in the current incarnation of the Clausura competition – the Toreno Final, in their first run back amongst the elite. While currently they sit atop the division with one game to play. A pitch invasion of a very different kind could be in order soon enough.

Aston Villa’s average point demise somewhat echoes that of Independiente. The stature of both clubs is not overly dissimilar, as both boast continental glory still prominent in the memories of some supporters, while, until the Argentine’s demise, neither had experienced relegation. It would be difficult to deny that the Villa Park faithful have been subject to a spate of abject performances over recent years and have been fortunate to scrape some semblance of Premier League integrity. In parallel, Los Rojo’s moments of glory have become intermittent at best, with one league title in 20 years, while their most recent Copa Libertadores win coming in 1984. Meanwhile Villa have barely entertained the prospect of trophy lifting for many seasons, save for handful of cup runs.

The very idea of relegation of either side is an utterly distasteful one, although the opportunity to rebuild, reorganise and engage in a general clearing of the pipes could be most welcome, perhaps even a necessity. Relegation is an undeniable chance for this. A club, especially a sizeable one, can return refreshed and reinvigorated with a new focus and drive – a swathe of adjectives Paul Lambert would love to justifiably select from when describing his charges’ performances next season for sure.

The stories here do point to one inescapable feature of average point relegation. It is utterly and unrelentingly, ruthless. A side, any side, has to be competitive every single season. They must earn their top flight stripes, continually prove they are worthy. Or else. The weak’s throats are savagely cut, before being dragged aside to be skinned at the first sign of ineptitude, while most of the others are furiously treading water just to keep their ankles from being gabbed and their heads dragged under. An usual dynamic, that must provide a different dimension to the football across the league, as every game means something. Even an end of season meeting between two mid table sides could have repercussions a year or two down the line.

Any prospect of the Premier League taking up a similar relegation format is clearly an entirely unpalatable and ridiculous one. It’s over complicated nature (how on earth would you go about formulating relegation permutations in the final weeks of the campaign?), the fact that it’s allegedly designed to sustain the presence of bigger clubs and the by product of trapping some smaller promoted sides (such as Hull or San Martin) would stand to diminish the undoubted strength of the now ubiquitous Premier League brand. However, although the footballing product produced in England is arguably the best on the planet, it is not untouchable. Indeed, far from it. Playoff systems, varying league sizes, relegation competitions, 4 up/4 down and many other devices are used successfully in league pyramids all over the world. If the Premier League and the European game generally want to repeatedly hold aloft the title of ‘Best’ in the coming years they both need to continually seek evolution and learn from other successes. Perhaps the next revolution is lurking just over the horizon.